| Example of Recent Winners |
Below you can find examples of past winners so you can see the type of thing you can expect if you take the free trial. Nothing has been changed from the original email that was sent out to subscribers other than the final results being added at the bottom of the page.
Saturday 12th April
Date of Game: Saturday 12th April
Game: Recreativo Huelva v Barcelona - kick off 9.00p.m
Competition: La Liga
Selection: Lay Barcelona
Reasoning: Barca again last week showed why it is impossible to back them in any way away from home in La Liga as even a 2-0 half-time lead couldn't stop them from crashing to yet another away defeat. Quite why they are so bad away from home is a mystery but it is something that has to be taken advantage of. That defeat at Betis means they have now failed to win 20 of their 27 La Liga away games since January 1st 2007. This season they have not won in 11 of their 15 La Liga away games, including 5 of their last 6. They are simply just not very good away! The fact that they are still reguarly priced up at odds-on away from home is all down to reputation and not actual results.
Recreativo are 4th bottom in La Liga but that is mainly down to an awful start to the season where they had picked up just 9 points by the middle of November. Since then though they have improved a lot and the fact they are now out of the relegation zone is of great credit to them. Since November they have shown mid-table form and are now a much better side than their league position suggests. They have lost just 3 of their last 9 league games, 2 of which were away to top-half sides and the other was at home to Real Madrid when they were only undone by a 90th minute Robinho goal.
At odds-on I am a big layer of Barca.
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Sunday 6th April
Date of Game: Sunday 6th April
Game: Middlesborough v Manchester United - kick off 1.30p.m - Live on Sky Sports 1
Competition: Premiership
Selection: Lay Man.Utd HT/FT
Reasoning: My initial thoughts when first looking at this game was a straight lay of United. Boro have an excellent record at home to the Big 4 having lost just 2 of their last 11 games against the top sides. However, after taking a closer look at the stats, this bet offers better value I feel.
Despite United being the best side in the Premiership for the last two seasons, they have a below average record when it comes to winning their games HT/FT away from home. They have won just 9 of their 34 games away from Old Trafford in the past 2 years at HT/FT and just 1 of 8 against a side like Boro (top half of the bottom half)
Boro have a very decent HT/FT record at home having only lost after being behind at the break in 6 of their 34 home games in the past 2 years. Their record against the Big 4 in that period is just 2 HT/FT defeats in 7.
I would lay the current Man U price of 2.2 all day long.
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Saturday 5th April
Date of Game: Saturday 5th April
Game: Wigan v Birmingham - kick off 3.00p.m
Competition: Premiership
Selection: Wigan win
Reasoning: No surprise where I am going for the first bet of the weekend. Regular subscribers can zone out on this bit but just for any newcomers.... when two teams battling against relegation meet in the Premiership (I quantify battling against relegation as averaging less than 1 point per game after Jan 1st) the home side has a fantastic record. In the past 10 seasons of the Premiership, including this one, these type of games have produced an incredible 72% win rate for the home side and just a 8% win rate for the away side. Seeing as the average odds of those home sides is around 5/4-ish that is a very high strikerate.
While I am surprised the odds compilers haven't yet cottoned on to this system I am even more surprised they haven't cottoned on to the improvement in Wigan at home since Steve Bruce took charge. They have a record of won 5, drawn 2, lost 2 at the JJB since Mr Potato Head stepped into the hotseat. Interestingly Wigan have an excellent home record against their fellow strugglers. When up against the current bottom 8 (who have been the bottom 8 virtually all season) at the JJB their record reads W-W-D-W-W-W. This contrasts nicely with Birminghams record when away to the current bottom 8 which reads W-L-L-L-L-L with their sole win being at Derby who everyone wins at.
5/4 is a very, very nice price in my opinion. I would personally take odds-on so nice value bet here.
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Wednesday 2nd April
Date of Game: Wednesday 2nd April
Game: Fenerbahce v Chelsea - kick off 7.45p.m - Live on Sky Sports
Competition: Champions League
Selection: Lay Chelsea
Reasoning: Fenerbahce are very strong at home and the current price significantly under-rates them in my opinion. They have won all 5 of their 5 home Champions League games this season beating some very decent sides in Inter Milan, Sevilla, PSV Eindhoven, CSKA Moscow and Anderlecht. They are not a side that should be priced at almost 7/2.
Chelsea don't have the best of records when away from home in this competition. They have won just 7 of their 20 Champions League away games in the past 4 years.
Am tempted to go with the straight home win but think I'll play it safe and just lay Chelsea.
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