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Football Elite
26.02.11 + 27.02.11
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Recommended Bets
Date of Game: Saturday 5th March
Game: Hannover v Bayern Munich - kick-off 2.30pm
Competition: Bundesliga
Selection: Hannover to win (-0 Asian Handicap or Draw No Bet)
Best Prices
4.0 with StanJames, VictorChandler, Coral, Eurobet
3.8 with Centrebet
3.75 with PaddyPower, BlueSq, 888, Skybet, Boylesports, Bet365, Bodog
* you can manually create the bet by betting 0.75pts on the win + 0.25pts on the draw based on draw odds of 4.0 (0.26pts on the draw if draw odds are 3.9). At current odds manually creating the bet works out at odds of around 3.95 - 4.05
Reasoning: Due to their name value keeping their price artificially low, there's probably rarely a bad time to oppose Bayern away from home but this looks a particularly good opportunity.
As I often seem to say in Hannover games, you can probably justify a bet on this one purely for the fact that Hannover are 5.0+ to beat a side they are 2 points above in the Bundesliga table. We are 70% of the way through the season now - Hannover are not in the position they are by luck. They're not a spectacular side but they are clearly an effective side.
Hannover's home form is strong - 25 points claimed from 12 games, the 2nd highest in the Bundesliga. Bayern's away record is not great overall or at least not great in comparison to their odds-on price.
Their away record this season is P12, W4, D4, L4, F20, A20. When they've been away to one of the stronger home sides (one averaging more than 1.50 PPG at home) their record is P5, W1, D2, L2, F5, A7. That's a pretty standard away record for Bayern the last few years. Overall in the last 3 years their away record when away to a strong home side is P23, W6, D9, L8.
Bayerns particular achilles heel seems to be when away to a strong home side with a strong home defensive record (like Hannover). Beleive it or not Bayern have only kept 2 clean sheets in 29 Bundesliga away games under Louis van Gaal. They have conceded an average of 1.31 goals per away game in that time. That puts them on a par with someone like Hoffenheim or Frankfurt (ie a mid-table side). Of course the difference between Bayern and Hoffenheim or Frankfurt is that Bayern have the strongest attack in the league. That means that Bayern tend to pick up points in their away games by outscoring the opposition (sounds an obvious statement but hopefully you know what I mean!). This season alone they've had 3-3's, 5-3's, 3-2's etc and against the defensively strong home sides they struggle to score the number needed to make up for their shaky defence. This season their record in such games is P4, W1, D0, L3 and overall in the last 3 years it's P15, W4, D3, L8.
Added on to that Bayern have lost their last 2 games and they've been particularly damaging defeats with a home loss to Dortmund last weekend ending any hopes of another Bundesliga title followed by a semi-final loss to Schalke knocking them out of the German Cup. Pressure is on Van Gaal and it seems a good time to oppose them in general and especially so with Hannover fitting the profile of the type of opponents they traditionally struggle with.
To be totally honest I may be bottling it a bit going for cover on the draw. At the odds though I'm willing to sacrifice a point to save a point if the draw comes into play.
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Date of Game: Saturday 5th March
Game: Lorient v Nancy - kick-off 6.00pm
Competition: Ligue 1
Selection: Lorient to win
Best Prices
1.87 with 188bet
1.85 with Youwin, Unibet, Nordicbet, Expekt, BetPhoenix, Interwetten
1.84 with Pinnacle
Reasoning: Lorient are in very decent form at the moment, especially at home being unbeaten in their last 9 Ligue 1 home games with a P9, W7, D2, L0, F19, A4 record. Overall they have the 2nd best home record in France and the 2nd best home defensive record. In the last 12 months their home record is P20, W13, D5, L2, F35, A12 which is again the 2nd best in the league in that time with the best home defence.
Nancy have been in a slump since coming back off the winter break. They've lost 6 of their 7 games since the turn of the year, including all 4 of their away games, conceding 10 and scoring just 1 in the process.
Looks a decent price for the in-form Lorient.
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Date of Game: Sunday 6th March
Game: Freiburg v Werder Bremen - kick-off 2.30pm
Competition: Bundesliga
Selection: Freiburg to win
Best Prices
2.55 with 5Dimes, Bwin
2.53 with Pinnacle
2.51 with 188bet
2.5 with SBObet, Canbet, VictorChandler, Chronicle, Bet-at-home, Interwetten, Gamebookers, Partybets, Jenningsbet
Reasoning: Another occasion where we can get 2.5+ on a side to win at home against a side they are 12 points ahead of in the table.
A team with Bremens away record has to be opposed at these odds in my opinion. Their away record this season is P12, W1, D4, L7, F9, A31 - the worst record in the league in terms of points, goals scored and goals conceded.
They've picked up just 2 points in their last 7 away games and in the process took hammerings at the likes of Stuttgart, Cologne, Hamburg and Schalke - all teams with inferior home records to Freiburg.
Freiburg have the 5th best home record in the Bundesliga and have picked up 20 points from a possible 27 in their last 9 home games, with the 1 defeat in that time against champions elect Dortmund.
I think if Bremens record was replicated by a side that was less of a name, Freiburg would be a much shorter price for this one. It is just Bremen's name value keeping Freiburgs odds as high as they are in my opinion.
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Date of Game: Sunday 6th March
Game: Hercules v Almeria - kick-off 4.00pm
Competition: La Liga
Selection: Hercules to win
Best Prices
2.0 with almost everyone!
Reasoning: Hercules have done well at home this season, especially against their fellow bottom half sides. They've understandably only picked up 1 point in the 4 games against this seasons top 4 - Barca, R.Madrid, Valencia and Villarreal - but in the rest of the games they've done remarkably well with a record of:-
LOST 0-1 v Atletic Bilboa
WON 2-0 v Sevilla
WON 2-1 v Sociedad
WON 3-1 v Levante
WON 4-1 v Malaga
WON 4-1 v Athletico Madrid
WON 2-1 v Zaragoza
DREW 0-0 v Getafe
That's not a bad record at all.
Almeria have been consistently poor away from home in La Liga since they came up and this season is no exception. They've lost 9 of their 13 away games this season and considering they are still yet to go to Barcelona or Real Madrid that's a pretty shaky record. They've lost all 5 away games since the winter break, conceding 12 and scoring just 2 in the process.
Evens looks a decent price for the home win to me.
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Date of Game: Monday 7th March
Game: Deportivo La Coruna v Real Sociedad - kick-off 8.00pm
Competition: La Liga
Selection: Deportivo to win
Best Prices
2.26 with SBObet, Canbet
2.24 with 5Dimes
2.23 with 188bet, 12bet, Mansion88
2.22 with Pinnacle
Reasoning: Not sure what it is about Monday night games but we seem to have had some kind of involvement in every one the last few weeks.
Sociedad have done us well overall this season but away from home they are nowhere near as strong with a P13, W3, D1, L9, F18, A30 record. 3 of the 4 occasions they have picked up away points this season have come against the current 3 sides in the relegation zone - Almeria, Gijon and Malaga.
Deportivo started the season dreadfully with just 4 points from their first 8 games. Since then though they've picked up a fair bit. Their home record since the end of October is W-W-W-D-L-D-W-D. While that still looks a fairly decent record it doesn't quite tell the whole story as included in those 8 games are games against 5 of the current top 6 - Barcelona, Real Madrid, Villarreal, Espanyol and Sevilla. Considering the opposition they've overperformed to get the results they have in the last few months.
Looks a bit of value for Deportivo to me.
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Selections for 05.03.11
1pt on Hannover to bt Bayern Munich (-0 Asian Handicap)
1pt on Lorient to bt Nancy
Selections for 06.03.11
1pt on Freiburg to bt Werder Bremen
1pt on Hercules to bt Almeria
Selections for 07.03.11
1pt on Deportivo to bt Sociedad
* = For official profit/loss records I will settle at the price available 30 mins after the email has been sent
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