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Date of Game: Sunday 11th April
Game: Espanyol v Athletico Madrid - kick-off 6.00pm
Competition: La Liga
Selection: Espanyol to win
Best Price
2.6 with StanJames, Interwetten
Next Best Prices
2.55 with Expekt
2.53 with 10bet
2.52 with 5Dimes, 188bet
Reasoning: Athletico Madrid have really struggled away from home this season. They have a P15, W2, D4, L9 record on their travels so far this term with those 2 wins coming against Xerex and Valladolid - the sides bottom and 2nd bottom of the league. It has been their defence that has let them down with those 2 games the only times they have kept an away clean sheet. They have the 4th worst away defence in La Liga.
A.Madrid tend pick up points in high-scoring games when the opposition defence is as weak as theirs and their superior attack can score more than the oppositition. That wont be the case with Espanyol who are looking very solid defensively, especially at home.
Espanyol haven't conceded a goal at home for over 8 hours of La Liga football. They last conceded at home on 24th January - 6 games ago. Overall in their 8 La Liga home games in 2010 they have a record of W-W-D-W-W-D-W-D with only 2 goals conceded in those 8. They have faced the likes of Mallorca, Villarreal, Sevilla and Bilboa in that time so have faced some decent attacking sides.
It looks unlikely that A.Madrid will score more than once and with their shaky defence pretty likely they will concede 1 or 2. Espanyol look a touch of value at their current price.
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Date of Game: Sunday 11th April
Game: Sampdoria v Genoa - kick-off 7.45pm
Competition: Serie A
Selection: Sampdoria to win
Best Price
2.28 with 5Dimes, 188bet
Next Best Prices
2.26 with Pinnacle
2.25 with 12bet, Mansion88, Expekt, Partybets, Gamebookers, Chronicle, Jenningsbet, Bodog, Betsson
Reasoning: Sampdoria haven't lost a Serie A home game since losing 2-0 to Palermo on the 18th January 2009 - 25 games ago!
Its not hard to see why as not only have they averaged almost 2 goals scored per game at home since that last defeat but they are also very strong at the back. They have conceded an average of just 0.91 goals per game since that last defeat and this season that record is even better with just 9 conceded in 15 games - the best home defence in Serie A.
It is going to be tough for Genoa as they are not great away from home at the best of times. They have the 5th worst away record in Serie A with 9 defeats in 15 games. They have scored only 12 goals in those 15 games and conceded 26. The last time they won an away game was way back on the 4th October - 13 games ago.
They arnt in great form overall either with just 1 win in their last 7 games home and away and that was a 5-3 win at home to Cagliari. With Samps v.strong home defence they arnt going to be able to concede 3 in this one and still get something.
It should be noted that these two sides share a stadium so I have heard people say before that usual home/away form doesn't apply. I dont agree with that though as I beleive what makes the advantage to being at home is the fans and the pyschological differences that brings. Sampdoria will have 90% of the fans as it is their home game. In similar derbies where sides share a stadium home/away results are no different than you would expect to see in any other kind of fixture. EG in this fixture in the past 10 years there have been 8 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. In the AC/Inter Milan derby there has been 11 home wins, 5 draws and 5 away wins. In the Roma/Lazio derby there have been 10 home wins, 7 draws and 4 away wins.
Odds against for the home win looks a cracking bet.
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Date of Game: Sunday 11th April
Game: Real Mallorca v Valencia - kick-off 8.00pm
Competition: La Liga
Selection: Mallorca to win
Best Price
2.45 with Interwetten
Next Best Prices
2.42 with 188bet, 10bet
2.41 with Pinnacle, 5Dimes
2.4 with Expekt, Bwin, Bet24, Betsson, Jenningsbet
Reasoning: Mallorca went down 1-0 to Barca in their last home game but that is no disgrace and with a bit more luck they could well have got something. Dont see any reason why we shouldn't continue to side with them at home especially as Valencia arnt in as good a form as they were earlier in the season.
After the Barca defeat Mallorca now have a home record this season of P14, W12, D0, L2, F33, A8. That is still obviously a great record.
Valencia will be another big test as they have the 3rd best away record in La Liga. However a lot of that is down to their form in the early part of the season. Their complete away record this season is W-L-W-W-W-W-W-D-W-D-L-D-L-L-L. As you can see their results have tailed off a fair bit lately compared to how they were flying early on.
Their goals have also dried up. In their first 7 away games of the season they scored 15 goals but in the 8 games since then they have scored just 6 (and 3 of those were against bottom place Xerex). With Mallorca being so strong at the back at home that is an encouraging stat and could be the key.
Looks a big price for the home win to me.
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Selections for 10.04.10
None
Selections for 11.04.10
1pt on Espanyol to bt A.Madrid
1pt on Sampdoria to bt Genoa
1pt on Mallorca to bt Valencia
* = For official profit/Ioss records I will settle at the price available 30 mins after the email has been sent